The “Everything” Way to Defeat ISIS

Justin Lynch

THE TAKEAWAY

The “Everything” Way to Defeat ISIS

By Justin Lynch

It’s a Friday afternoon in mid-June, approaching the Washington D.C. dead season, but Rahim Rashidi had a job to do.

 came in five minutes late, snagging a can of free soda on the table, and set his tripod up directly in front of the audience.

It’s a Friday afternoon in mid-June, approaching the Washington D.C. dead season, but Rahim Rashidi had a job to do.

A veteran journalist from Kurdistan TV, he quickly apologized to those around him and promised to move. But, he stood his ground blocking the view of everyone else. Rashidi had one job: to ask one question.

“Do you think Iraq is divided between Kurds, Shia, and Sunni?”

At first glance, it seems a dubious question about a country whose internal divisions rival a Game of Thrones novel, but Rashidi’s question was a symbol of the Kurdish state he is from; calculated, to the point, and with a singular objective.

It’s a Friday afternoon in mid-June, approaching the Washington D.C. dead season, but Rahim Rashidi had a job to do.

Of course, after living through decades of brutal rule in Saddam’s Iraq, Rashidi already knew that Shia, Sunni, and Kurds are largely divided along sectarian lines at present. He just wanted the soundbite for his producer at Kurdistan TV.

Related: What should the U.S. do- if anything- to defeat ISIS?

As Steven A. Cook wrote back in the fall of 2013, the Kurdish state in the Northeast of Iraq is already happening. With the help of an American no fly zone in 1991, the Kurdish Regional Authority looked inward, and focused on economic growth and internal security. It has worked. Thanks to its large oil and gas reserves, Kurdistan has been called ‘the other Dubai’, and while the rest of Iraq was self-destructing with car-bombs and IEDs, the independent region enjoyed an almost unblemished record of security.

But when the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) captured the Iraqi city of Mosul on June 9th and extended its area of control to the border of the Kurdish independent region, the gains of the past decades were put into question.

In response, the Kurdish could employ a strategy similar to the one used by online retail giant Amazon; Instead of committing to temporary alliances with Baghdad, Iran, or the United States, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) could invest in the future, and bide its time- just like Rashidi.

Kurdistan has been called ‘the other Dubai’, and while the rest of Iraq was self-destructing with car-bombs and IEDs, the independent region enjoyed an almost unblemished record of security.

“The Kurds maintain the dominant position in Iraq: unified, militarily superior, and little affected by internecine Arab strife” wrote Dov Friedman and Cale Salih in a recent Foreign Affairs article. “The KRG may sit out this fight until its immediate interests are at stake, and no one could fault it.”

More: Why is ISIS a threat in Iraq, but not Syria?

If after decades, even centuries of deceit, the Kurds have learned that the best option is to remain patient, what should the United States do?

“If I were advising ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, I would do everything I could to draw the United States into non-thoughtful airstrikes.” said Christopher Fussell, a Senior Fellow with the International Security Program at New America. “It helps with [Baghdadi’s] recruiting, it is going to help [his] narrative about the far enemy returning to the region, and it will ultimately help build closer bonds with the population.”

Indeed, the best policy the Obama administration could take to counter the growing influence of ISIS might be to take a page out of the Amazon and KRG playbook and consider proceeding with caution, a strategy the Obama administration has already taken, according to New America Senior Fellow Douglas Ollivant.

“Since this crisis came about, I think it has been handled very well.” said Ollivant “In essence, President Obama has not made a decision. The best strategy here is to not make a decision unless you have to.”

The best policy the Obama administration could take might be to take a page out of the Amazon and KRG playbook and consider proceeding with caution.

Of course, many analysts have criticized this wait and see approach, hoping instead that the administration acts decisively and urgently.

“I think we have learned some hard lessons about taking urgent actions. ‘Urgently do what?’ is the question we need to be asking ourselves” said Fussell,  “I can urgently deploy thousands of force, the questions is what does that get us in the near term?”

Although ISIS captured cities at lightning quick speed, the loosely networked group still hosts a significant number of disadvantages. When these deficiencies are taken into consideration, they reinforce the narrative that a calculated and patient response to ISIS is the best one for the United States.

“When your alliance is made from such contradictory backgrounds, you don’t have loyalty,” said Dr. Nadia Oweidat, a Senior Fellow at the International Security Program at New America. “Loyalty is built through shared time and shared experiences. It is very easy then, for dissent to occur very quickly, within ISIS.”

Oddly, the one thing that all of ISIS does agree on is their heavy-handed tactics. When the group took over the city of Mosul, it was thought that they would immediately implement a strict interpretation of Sharia Law. That has not happened yet, according to a recent Los Angeles Times article, but a mandate could come any day now.

Although ISIS captured cities at lightning quick speed, the loosely networked group still hosts a significant number of disadvantages.

“It would be tactically much smarter for ISIS to show its kinder, gentler side in the way it rules, but they are ideologically incapable of that. What is the point of trying to set up a caliphate if at the end of the day, it’s not very caliphate like?” said Ollivant. “The scorpion is always going to bite the frog in the middle of the river, even though he drowns himself.”

Not only is their ideology incapable of winning the hearts and minds of the population in the long run, but ISIS could lack the cash flow to pay their bills, even in the short term.

“Along with inheriting the cities of Mosul, ISIS also inherited a bunch of people.” said Ollivant “If you have to finance the city of Mosul, than I am not sure that the money ISIS has will last them the next three weeks.”

But if ISIS is to be defeated, it will occur with the unification of sects and tribes that share the same interests, at least in the near term.

For all of the progress that the Kurds have made as an independent region, they still might have to recognize that their future also relies on a strong Baghdad.

“Any rational analysis is that Iraq needs to stay together” said Ollivant. “The Sunni areas are utterly impoverished, and is landlocked. It would be Somalia without a coast. In addition, the Shia south would have no way of dealing with Tehran as an equal, and would become an Iranian client state.”

For all of the progress that the Kurds have made as an independent region, they still might have to recognize that their future also relies on a strong Baghdad.

“Even the Kurds, who may perhaps in their heart want to succeed and create an independent state, must recognize that it would be landlocked, and instantly a Turkish client state.” said Ollivant.

Even Rashidi, the intrepid reporter from Kurdistan TV, recognized that there’s more than one path to the correct answer. At the end of the event, he approached the three speakers, and asked for a longer interview, one on one. Patience worked for Rashidi, the KRG, and Amazon. Maybe it will work for the United States as well.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Justin Lynch

Justin Lynch is the Social Media Coordinator at New America.